By: Ganiyu Olayinka
Nigeria has risen four places to eighth in the 2026 Bloomberg Economics Investment Risk-O-Meter, overtaking Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and Namibia as the country’s economic and external position improved across three of the five indicators assessed.
Bloomberg’s scorecard covers 19 African economies and ranks them according to relative investment risk. Mauritius took the top position, while Nigeria emerged as one of the biggest movers in the latest assessment.
The improvement comes amid economic reforms implemented since President Bola Tinubu took office in 2023, including the removal of the petrol subsidy, foreign-exchange market liberalisation and measures aimed at improving the finances of the electricity sector.
Bloomberg said Nigeria improved in economic strength, fiscal strength and external vulnerability, three of the five metrics used in its Investment Risk-O-Meter.
Rating agencies also see improving credit conditions
The Bloomberg ranking comes against a backdrop of improving assessments from major international credit-rating agencies.
In May 2026, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating from B- to B, the agency’s first upgrade of Nigeria since 2012. S&P cited sustained structural reforms, improvements in the foreign-exchange market, higher oil production and increased refining capacity. The outlook was maintained at stable.
Fitch Ratings also maintained Nigeria’s long-term sovereign rating at B with a stable outlook in April 2026.
More recently, Moody’s revised Nigeria’s outlook from stable to positive while affirming its B3 rating. The agency pointed to stronger foreign-exchange reserves, better-than-expected economic growth and an improved ability to withstand external shocks. However, Moody’s continued to identify limited government revenue generation and weak debt affordability as significant credit constraints.
Taken together, the assessments suggest that international investors and rating agencies are seeing evidence of macroeconomic stabilisation, although Nigeria remains well below investment-grade sovereign ratings.
Growth strengthens, but remains below the level needed for rapid improvements in living standards
Nigeria’s economy has continued to expand since the reforms began.
The International Monetary Fund estimates that Nigeria grew by about 4% in 2025 and projects growth of 4.1% in 2026. The IMF said reforms over the past three years have produced improved macroeconomic outcomes and strengthened resilience, while warning that living conditions remain difficult for many Nigerians.
The World Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update similarly says the country has made meaningful progress in restoring macroeconomic stability. It points to easing inflation, stronger external and fiscal positions and robust economic growth, but stresses that household incomes have not fully recovered and poverty remains high.
The World Bank’s latest country assessment puts real GDP growth at 4.2% in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.9% a year earlier. It projects growth of about 4.4% on average over 2026–28.
The figures indicate a stronger growth trajectory, although the World Bank cautions that current growth is still insufficient to generate enough productive jobs and materially reduce poverty.
Debt and fiscal pressure remain major risks
The improved investment and credit assessments do not eliminate Nigeria’s fiscal challenges.
Nigeria’s public debt has increased substantially since 2023. According to figures cited in the Bloomberg-related report, total public debt rose from N87.38 trillion on June 30, 2023, to N159.28 trillion on December 31, 2025.
The IMF estimates public gross debt at around 36.7% of GDP in 2026. However, the Fund highlights the burden of debt servicing, with federal government interest payments projected at more than half of federal government revenue.
The World Bank also identifies high debt-service costs and weaknesses in budget and public-investment management as constraints on the impact of increased government revenues.
This is consistent with Moody’s assessment that, despite a moderate overall debt burden, Nigeria continues to face weak debt affordability and limited revenue-generation capacity.
External position provides some support
Nigeria’s external position has also improved.
The World Bank says the current-account surplus increased to $5 billion in the first quarter of 2026, from $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, while gross foreign-exchange reserves reached $51.9 billion at the end of July 2026. It nevertheless identifies continued reliance on short-term portfolio inflows as a vulnerability.
The IMF’s 2026 assessment also points to stronger external buffers, with gross international reserves projected to remain substantially higher than in previous years.
A more positive outlook, but not a clean bill of health
Nigeria’s improved Bloomberg ranking therefore forms part of a broader shift in international assessments of the country’s economy.
S&P has upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign rating, Fitch has maintained its B rating with a stable outlook, and Moody’s has moved its outlook to positive. At the same time, the IMF and World Bank recognise improvements in macroeconomic stability, growth, revenues and the external position.
However, the assessments also point to persistent weaknesses: high debt-service costs, limited government revenue, inflationary pressures, poverty, weak household purchasing power and the economy’s continued dependence on oil and external financing conditions.
For investors, the message is therefore more nuanced than simply saying Nigeria has become a safer economy.
Nigeria’s relative position has improved, but the country still has significant fiscal and structural risks to overcome before that improvement can translate into sustained investment-grade creditworthiness and broad-based improvements in living standards.
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